I was on the side that believed Ozzie's Crazy Train would derail in 2007, so he's running on borrowed time at this point. From now on, it's Ozzie's "Runaway Train" and firing up that old Soul Asylum (whatever happened to those guys?) disc is encouraged.

Now that we're about six weeks into the regular season, prolonged early-season slumps are beginning to look like the start of career declines, while a few April surprises have kept their respective acts going strong into May. The party's going to last all summer for those who've unearthed breakout players and have actively managed their teams to net a Greg Smith or Blake DeWitt on the waiver wire. For others, a trip to The Home Depot is in order as a complete roster rebuild is in the cards. Just be sure to run it by Marissa first, champ.

It's nice to see some quietly encouraging production from last year's hot catcher prospect Chris Iannetta in Colorado. Iannetta started four straight games over Yorvit Torrealba this week and is 6-for-14 with a homer and six RBI during that stretch. Even if it's a 60-40 timeshare favoring the youngster, he's hit well at all levels and should be rostered in most formats since his defensive skills are adequate and you can keep him in the lineup even if his bat cools a bit.

I know Wladimir Balentien re-defines the idea of poor plate discipline (0:9 BB:K through 28 at-bats), but that didn't stop anyone from reaping the benefits of Mark Reynolds' early-season home-run binge. He's available in plenty of shallow leagues where an impatient owner is too stubborn to dump Andruw Jones. Considering the power's been there at all four minor league stops, and that he's got the potential to steal 10-15 bases, take a chance on the young talent with upside.

Mark Kotsay's injury history understandably scared away owners during drafts this spring. Who couldn't use a .310 average with three homers and 15 RBI, especially in leagues where teams have to start five outfielders? Consider that he's actually produced at similar levels over the course of whole seasons, and it's pretty clear he's a solid waiver wire replacement if you're a Josh Willingham owner still scrambling for a decent alternative.

Chone Figgins' hamstring injury has left plenty of owners in at least a temporary bind for steals. There are still shallow leagues where Kaz Matsui (they're not contagious) is on the waiver wire, while a couple of blasts from the past in Scott Podsednik and Ryan Freel might be available in deeper leagues for those needing a short-term boost.

Opponents aren't going to hit .350 on balls in play against Tim Lincecum for long, but he's not going to strand 89.5 percent of his baserunners all year, either. The expected result is a rising ERA (you probably didn't think 1.49 is sustainable anyway) and a falling WHIP (likely better than last season's). Otherwise, his indicators are trending favorably since his rookie season, particularly his home run rate, as he's allowed just one long ball this season through 42 1/3 innings after giving up 12 in 146 1/3 innings in 2007.

Barry Zito looked decent on Wednesday night in his "return" from the bullpen. Take it with a grain of salt for now; even though it was against a Pirates club that's had some success against southpaws this season. Bottom line, he still needed 99 pitches to get through five innings, and the knee-jerk reaction to hold out hope that the former Cy Young award winner will be useful again still figures to end in cruel disappointment.

Cliff Lee owners trying to sell high are struggling to find buyers, just as the Indians did when they shopped him over winter. The laundry list of red flags doesn't help (career rates in parenthesis): .216 BABIP (.300), 88.5 percent strand rate (69.7), 0.20 HR/9IP (1.27). That doesn't even include the 19.5 K/BB ratio or the fact his walk rate's risen in each of the last three seasons. Readers have questioned Lee's ranking on our cheatsheets (which are adjusted throughout the season to predict relative value based on performance the rest of the way), as he's floating around the mid-40s among starting pitchers, but I'd take Manny Parra for him in a heartbeat.

Congratulations Gavin Floyd owners, you didn't get burned by holding onto him yet. Sell high after the latest near no-hitter. His .147 BABIP remains the lowest in the league for pitchers who've thrown 25-plus innings. There's no surviving The Cell when you get taken deep as often as Floyd has throughout his career.

The drop off from Yovani Gallardo to Dave Bush is huge, but the fact that Jeff Weaver's probably going to end up replacing Bush is making doves cry in Milwaukee. You can never have too much pitching, as injuries to Gallardo, Chris Capuano and the release of Claudio Vargas have quickly cleared out the team's depth. As for Bush, the point where a tumbling strikeout rate and rising walk rate intersect just makes you wonder what went wrong after his 166:38 K:BB in 2006.

From the crazy file out in left field: someone should tell Senator George Mitchell the 20 months he spent investigating the use of performance-enhancing drugs could've been significantly less if he just would have talked to Mindy McCready's mother first. Clemens has never used any illegal substances, if you really want to put stock in the words of a former mother-in-law-on-the-side. It's fair to say I'm a non-observer of the country music scene, so I was unaware the country star has her own checkered past that would undoubtedly blow up the compatibility meters at eHarmony if profiles for the Rocket and the Fire Cracker were popped into the dating service's computers.

Friendly Reminder: Mother's Day is Sunday, May 11. It's also $1 hot dogs and small sodas for the Brewers-Cardinals series at Miller Park if you want to take mom out to a ballgame.

Tout Wars Update

I'm still bouncing around between the second and third-place spots for the time being. Mike Lombardo's been sitting on top pretty consistently for most of the first six weeks. Despite this, we swung a deal last week, where I gave up Edwin Encarnacion for Chris Young (the pitcher) and Tony Clark (to fill my corner infield spot). It's another apples-for-oranges deal, but given that his strength was pitching (Scott Olsen, Edinson Volquez and Todd Wellemeyer have all panned out, and he's looking very good with Cole Hamels as his ace) and mine's been hitting, it made sense for both sides.

My early-season Bronson Arroyo-for-Andruw Jones flip has been interesting. It's pretty much been an exchange of two disasters. Every time I think Jones is heating up a little bit and is ready to turn the corner, I realize he's done the bare minimum with the "recorded a hit in four of his last five games" type streak where he's picked up exactly four hits during that stretch still not hitting over .250. I wasn't expecting a return to the 50-homer days, but one home run and four RBI in 104 at-bats?

Put nicely, Arroyo's very hittable. He's given up 50 hits in 32 1/3 innings despite a serviceable 29:13 K:BB ratio, while his .403 BABIP is off the charts compared to his .298 career rate. I'll take the batting average drain in Jones over the ERA (8.63) and WHIP liability (1.948) Arroyo's provided, but it's close. It'll be interesting to see if the recent tests the Reds ran on Arroyo turn up any sort of arm issues after he rolled up 240 2/3 innings last season.

The new rotation of Peavy, Young, Billingsley, Hendrickson and Glavine just might get the job done. Burke Badenhop's manning the No. 6 starter role right now, though Jason Schmidt could eventually jump into the mix if he proves to have anything left in the tank once he's back from injury.

As for the bullpen, Rafael Soriano's injury was enough of a blow, but the unforeseen kicker was John Smoltz going down and then deciding he wants to finish the season as a reliever. I thought the Soriano-Mike Gonzalez duo would be the right mix to get most of the saves taken care of, but unless Smoltz's injury knocks him out for an extended period, Soriano's going to be a colossal bust for me. Luckily, Brandon Lyon's held onto the job, and I traded Brian Giles for Tony Pena to get some insurance. I've also got a Taylor Tankersley lottery ticket should the Marlins trade Kevin Gregg at some point.

Article first appeared 5/8/08