When cautious fantasy players learned in the off-season that Cardinals first baseman Albert Pujols (calf) had been playing since 2003 with ligament damage in his right elbow, many were scared away from drafting him too highly.
The fear that his frayed and torn right ulnar collateral ligament would rupture was enough to scare many in the fantasy community from acquiring one of the most feared hitters in baseball. It turns out that those fears were well-founded, even if the reason for it has little to do with his elbow.What about the elbow?
It was news to virtually every baseball fan and fantasy owner when Pujols informed the public earlier this year regarding the extent of the injury to his elbow. In addition to the ligament tear, doctors found bone spurs, inflammation and arthritis of the elbow joint.
Pujols and team doctors discussed a number of options, including having either arthroscopic surgery to treat the bone spurs and arthritis (which would have done nothing for the torn ligament), or Tommy John surgery to repair the entire elbow. In the end, Pujols opted for the least invasive choice — rest, rehab and management.
Having played through the injury for five seasons, Pujols told reporters he saw no need for radical surgery when he could just play through the soreness, though he indicated he would not play through the pain he experienced in 2007. The problem with this from a fantasy perspective is that the elbow ligament could blow out at any time and would require major surgery. The recovery from such a procedure would keep him out for at least one year. Given that part of fantasy baseball is about minimizing risk, it is not difficult to see why Pujols fell down draft boards this preseason.
From dream season to nightmare scenario
As the 2008 season began, Pujols began to rack up a stat line that seemed almost spitefully designed to mock fantasy players who did not risk a high draft pick on him. One look at his .347 average and 1.105 on-base plus slugging percentage (OPS) was enough to make even the manliest owner weep with regret at having passed him over as Pujols gave every appearance of having returned to his MVP form.
The dream ended June 10 in a game against the Reds. In the seventh inning, Pujols hit a routine grounder to first base and fell to the ground almost immediately after leaving the batter's box. In obvious pain, Pujols had to be carried off the field by teammates and many in the Cardinals organization feared the worst.
Back in St. Louis June 11, Pujols underwent an MRI that revealed what has been classified as between a Grade 1 and Grade 2 strain of the left calf muscle, which suggests severe stretching and minor tearing of the muscle without the trauma of a complete tear. Team officials were relieved to learn that Pujols' rehab from the injury should take anywhere from three to four weeks, enough time to move him to the 15-day disabled list as of Wednesday, June 11.
It is possible that Pujols could resume baseball-related activities in seven to 10 days, according to Cardinals general manager Joe Mozeliak, though no timetable for his recovery has been established beyond that. Considering Pujols' reputation as a warrior on the field, look for him to return to action sometime soon after the All-Star break. In the meantime, the Cards recalled outfielder and first baseman Chris Duncan from Triple-A Memphis to fill Pujols' roster spot.
Minding the lineup gap
There is virtually no way to replace the loss of Pujols' production from your fantasy lineup, but it is made easier by the fact that Pujols plays one of the deepest positions in baseball.
As Pujols' replacement, Duncan could be a serviceable option for fantasy owners and is probably available in most leagues. Sent down to Triple-A earlier in the season after a slow start, Duncan managed to bat .273 with 43 homers over 655 at-bats from 2006-07. The Cardinals lack options at first base, so Duncan should see lots of playing time. He could fill the bill for fantasy players in deeper leagues.
If power is missing from your equation, consider adding 27-year-old Marlins first baseman Mike Jacobs if he is available. His meager .239 average will likely be hard to swallow, but 15 home runs and 37 RBI from a slugger in the middle of the overachieving Marlins lineup could be just what the doctor ordered.
Indians multi-position eligible infielder Casey Blake has been scorching hot the last few weeks and is widely available. Over the last 15 games, Blake is batting .375 with three homers, 10 runs scored and 12 RBI. He is not a long-term fix, but could serve as a decent band-aid until Pujols returns.
Fantasy baseball outlook
Pujols represents everything that is both sublime and infuriating about playing fantasy baseball. When healthy, there are few players in the majors today who are as consistently awesome in delivering impressive numbers as he, but he is a double injury risk moving forward this season.
The recurrence of a left calf injury that first flared up late in 2007 has now sent Pujols to the DL probably until sometime in July. Even if he returns on time from this rehab stint, there is a reasonable chance that the muscle will act up again, affecting his play or keeping him out of the lineup.
Furthermore, the dark specter of Pujols shredded right elbow continues to lurk in the background. Despite the fact that his performance so far this season has been first-rate, the elbow could give out at any time, forcing Pujols into an operating room and a lengthy rehab program.
Fantasy owners in keeper leagues who control rights to Pujols might do well to entertain trade offers for the elite slugger in a few weeks. Even if he manages to return healthy this season, that elbow of his makes him the fantasy baseball equivalent of junk bonds (high risk/high reward) for future campaigns.
Owners in yearly leagues might want to roll the dice and cross their fingers that Pujols can finish out the year. His ability to post first-round numbers is worth taking a chance on, but make sure you understand that you might be up the creek if he goes down again.
